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Gibbons' Trading


Timer Digest 2002/2007/2008 Timer of the
Year
**Timer Digest Top
Market Timer last 3 and 6 month periods** (6/21/2010 issue)
Prices predict the future- not investors
(I
sent the following to subscribers in September 2008)
You
should know that I rarely (if ever) talk about the news. My view as a trader
for 38 years is that market moves create the news, not that the news creates
market moves. Therefore, to say that this news event caused the market to do
thus and so - is absurd. No one knows why the markets do anything (although
many traders with great hubris think they know), but it is a claim that
cannot be epistemologically defended in my view. I have made immense trading
profits for my clients and myself precisely because I do not listen to the
news or any outside influences. I follow a 100% non-emotional and highly
disciplined mechanical trading strategy. And finally, to make money trading,
we need only to know that markets move- not why they move. All of my trading
methods are primarily based on price because price is reality. Trends in
motion will stay in motion until they reverse.

Gibbons' Trading Blog:
http://gibbonstrading.wordpress.com
"I don't think trading
strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as
most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if
people have a general idea about it. I always say that you could
publish trading rules in the newspaper and no one would follow them."
-Richard Dennis-
"It's not luck Todd"
-Louis Winthorpe III
in Trading Places-
Michael Gibbons'
Twin-Bar Trading System s
My creation of the Twin-Bar
Trading System enables
us to win at a rate far greater
than traditional investment strategies including other trend following methods. If you examine the trading
results below, you will see why I think the Twin-Bar Trading System is
one of the most effective trading methods ever discovered. This is not hype or
some exaggerated claim in any context. Simply examine the trading record-it
speaks for itself.
The Twin-Bar Trading System
is based upon what the market is actually doing (it uses daily
high/low/close prices as the only data input)- not what some people think it
should or will be doing. The Twin-Bar Trading System does well because
unlike most other trend following systems, mine has a non-trending component
that protects against many whipsaws in
non-trending markets. This means we get fewer false trading signals and we are
able to greatly elongate winning trades.
Trend following is about surrendering
to the now situation in the market .
We simply go with the flow and leave our egos at the door. If the market is
going up, we are generally long. If the market is going down, we are
generally short. What we think a market should or will do is irrelevant. We
do what the market is doing.
I do not comment on news or anything
other than what the market is doing. Economic fundamentals may move the
markets over the long term, but those fundamentals are reflected in price
action. All fundamental and technical buying and selling is reflected in one
thing- price. Price is therefore the major component of the Twin-Bar
Trading System. Remember, prices predict the future- not investors.

Publication
schedule
Gibbons' Trading financial publications are
sent to you every Sunday morning. In addition, unlike other financial
information writers that have a fixed publication schedule, we publish
whenever the markets tell us to act. In a very active market, you might
receive updates several times a week. We provide a totally
disciplined approach to trading with no emotion added. We are not
fundamental traders that write reams of prose with "stories" that support
our trades. You get high probability trades, and we
make occasional specific market comments based upon the
Twin-Bar Trading Method.
Because of our track record,
our publications are not inexpensive. This is logical as our clients are willing to pay for the edge
we provide on a consistent basis. Subscribers to our trading publications
include large traders, banks, forex dealers, hedge funds, brokers, futures
funds, insurance companies, risk management firms, and many institutional
money managers.
Gibbons' Twin-Bar Trading System works
because it cannot miss a major market move by definition, and it cannot
be on the wrong side of a moving market for long (cut losses short). This eliminates
two of the major causal reasons for trader failure. The first reason is that
many traders fail to capitalize (they miss the trade) on occasional major market moves that are
responsible for much of the profitability in any given year. The second
reason is that many traders allow losses to run. Disciplined systematic
trend followers cannot let losses run because most trend following models
will jump out of losing trades fairly quickly and reverse course to get on
the right side of a directional move.
Black swans (unexpected events) will always
occur, and we take advantage of them if they cause sufficient change in
directional movement. The Twin-Bar Trading System can take advantage of
black swan events (we went short on 10/9/1987) days before the crash. The
Twin-Bar has been on the correct side of all major market moves for it's
entire history.
**We do not accept credit cards for
subscriptions. If you want to subscribe, click on the Contact Us button
below and we will send you details and mailing instructions, etc**

Prices predict the future- not investors,
traders or analysts
One of the biggest mistakes the vast majority
of investors and traders make is to hold to the premise that you have to be
able to forecast to make money in the markets. That is why "forecasting"
services and predictions are so popular. People attempting to tell you (for
a price like a fortune teller) what
the best stocks are to hold for the future, what a stock will do a year from
now, or if gold will be higher or lower in two years. Gurus galore and they
tell you with great hubris how they have a special connection to the future.
The reality is, no on can predict or forecast markets with any consistency
over long periods of time.
Fortune tellers make predictions as do most
investors. What they don't get is that no one can predict or know the
future. Trend following is about reacting to the now situation- not
attempting to anticipate reversals or breakouts.
Black swans are much more common than most
people think, and fat tails are where we make a lot of our profit. The
Twin-Bar trading system has been on the right side of every major market
move from the beginnings of the markets. It has done that because it
automatically adjusts and changes course (if need be) to mirror the market.
The reason for our success is precisely the
opposite of making predictions. We follow trends- we don't predict
anything. If a market is going up, at a certain point we go long because a
market going up is repeating what it has done recently- that is, going up.
If a market is going down, we sell and sell short. We don't have price
objectives or targets and the so-called analytical methods employed by most
investors are worthless. We simply get aboard the bucking bronco and ride the horse in the direction
it's going.
***Track Record***
Stocks/ETFs
ETF Twin-Bar Trading System +77.3% (2009 & 2010
combined
as of 6/5/2010)
Futures
S&P 500 Twin-Bar Trading System 276.7% profit
on margin of $80,000 since 2007 (as of 6/5/2010)
ETF
Twin-Bar Trading System Publication
ETF trading signals are generated
exclusively by the Twin-Bar Trading System
ETF Twin-Bar Trading System +77.3% (2009 & 2010
combined
as of 6/5/2010)
The ETF Publication employs the Twin-Bar Trading System
which is a proprietary mechanical trend following method developed
by Michael Gibbons. No attempt is ever made to call or predict market turning points-
since no one can do that consistently. Because we are trend followers, we
are able to capture a good portion of
large directional market moves.
Trading signals in our ETF Model Portfolio are offered for four highly liquid stock index ETFs (DIA/GLD/QQQQ/SPY)
and they are based on daily
closing price data with no other inputs. We are always in the market long or short, and we average about four (4) signals per year for each of the
four ETFs. 50% margin is used at all times. 75% of the ETF Model Portfolio is in stocks and 25% in gold.
Because we are trend followers, we often will have winning positions in all
four ETFs simultaneously.
1
year subscription
$25,000.00
S&P 500
Twin-Bar Trading System
and Options Publication
S&P 500 trading signals
are 100% systematic and generated
exclusively by the Twin-Bar Trading System for our Futures Model Portfolio
The Twin-Bar S&P 500 Trading System
has produced a profit of 276.7% in futures trading on a very conservative
margin of $80,000 since 2007 (as of 6/5/2010)
Included is our Options Model Portfolio which writes
various credit spreads and occasional long option trades based on the buy/sell
signals of the Twin-Bar Trading System for 33 markets
1
year subscription
$25,000.00

Private
Research & Mentoring
We provide our proprietary
research to clients on an on-demand basis. The Twin-Bar Trading System is
capable of analyzing any freely traded market or stock in the world. If it
is contained in our extensive CSI data base, we can research it for you. This
research is designed for mutual funds, large institutional traders, and
hedge funds that require ongoing generic buy and sell trading signals. Please
inquire as to pricing.
P rivate mentoring is
made available to a
very small number of traders per year. Michael Gibbons personally provides sixteen hours
of one on one individual instruction, and the ability to speak with Mr.
Gibbons several times per week for one year. The psychology of
trading is stressed as well as trade selection and money management.
Mentoring clients receive at least two mechanical trend following trading
methods as well as the general conceptual basis of Gibbons' Twin-Bar Trading
System. Mentoring students are taught to fish so that they can catch fish in
the future without any help from the mentor. Mentoring students must be
prepared to unlearn what they think they know about trading to be
successful. Those students who are able to unlearn old concepts and beliefs
and learn new concepts- will be given the opportunity to make a large amount
of money.
1
year mentoring
$30,000.00
The Commodity Futures
Trading Commission requires we display the following disclaimer and it
applies to any futures trading statistics or other futures trading
information found on this site:
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT
LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING
MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR
TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY
ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH
THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE
FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT
FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY
TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN
GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH
CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE.
There is a risk of loss in
trading stocks, currencies, bonds, futures or any other financial market.
Please be certain that you thoroughly understand the risks involved in
trading before you trade.
Gibbons Trading LLC does not offer person to person
individual advice nor will we comment on any specific issue related to
trading. We do not tailor our trades to fit any specific person's portfolio.
We do not manage customer funds. We are not commodity trading advisors or
investment advisors. Gibbons Trading LLC is a stocks and futures electronic
information publisher. We provide buy and sell signals for a wide variety of
markets based on our research.
Due to the nature of our
trading, we can (and will) have periods of losses-sometimes long periods of
losses. If you cannot afford to have trading losses from time to time, you
should not trade.
Note that Timer Digest
receives our discretionary intermediate and long term market timing signals
for the S&P 500. We reserve our short term timing signals for
subscribers only. Therefore, our Timer Digest intermediate and long term market timing signals
may not be in alignment at any given time with the short term
trading signals that we use for futures index
trades and ETF trades that are in our Futures and/or ETF Model Portfolios.
Note we do not offer
refunds for any reason. Before you subscribe, make certain you are clear on
the content of the publication you will be receiving.
UNAUTHORIZED
DISCLOSURE NOTICE
CONFIDENTIALITY
NOTE: The information contained in the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures
publications is private, legally privileged and confidential information
intended only for the use of registered subscribers. If the reader of either
the Gibbons' Trading ETF or Futures publication is not the intended
recipient, you are hereby notified that the reading, dissemination,
distribution, forwarding or copying of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures
publications is strictly prohibited and grounds for the immediate
termination of the subscription, without the right of refund, of any
registered Gibbons' Trading subscriber who participates in such
distribution, dissemination, forwarding or copying. Gibbons' Trading
reserves the right to monitor the use of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and
Futures publications, by whichever electronic means it deems appropriate.
WARNING: Reproduction of any
of the material contained in the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures
publications, forwarding of same, or any portion thereof, by e-mail, fax,
photocopying or any other means, substantial quotation of any portion of the
Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications, or any other use of same by
any person other than the registered subscriber, without the written
permission of Gibbons' Trading LLC, may violate copyright laws and subject
the violator to legal prosecution. All rights reserved.



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