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Gibbons' Trading
63.2% stock trading Profit in 2008 Average stock trading Profit +22.5% per year The Value Trading Method (VTM) employs elements of market timing, trend following and pattern recognition
Timer Digest 2002/2007/2008 Timer of the Year Timer Digest Top Long Term Timer for the last 2 Years The only market timer in history to win stock market Timer of the Year honors three times Gibbons' Trading VTM Short Term Futures Model Portfolio Trading Record Futures Trading Information We have made considerable profits for our subscribers over the past seven years since the inception of the Futures publication. As good as my record is, we do not win every month and we do have losing periods. That is why we recommend that you capitalize your futures account at least four times minimum margin requirements. Winners approach futures trading as a business. Any business requires sufficient capital to sustain it. One of the major reasons a business fails is because of under capitalization. If you are trading, you must have adequate capital if you want to remain in business. If you do not have adequate capital, do not trade. If you look at the failure rate of most futures traders, the only conclusion you can come to is that many traders really want to lose their money. This observation is from many years of dealing with thousands of traders-the vast majority of do not have the necessary discipline to be successful. Many traders are in the markets for thrills and have a gambler's mentality. If you have a psychological need to lose money in the markets so that you can get attention from friends and/or loved ones, we suggest you not trade. At times, the margin requirements to take all of our VTM Model Portfolio recommendations will be too great for some smaller traders. This is why we stress over and over that you must have enough capital to trade futures. We need staying power to hold valid trend following positions when they are somewhat against us, and we do that by having plenty of money in reserve. Each VTM Futures Short Term Model Portfolio trade we give to subscribers varies greatly as to the number of contracts assigned to that specific trade. Most of the time, we employ multiple contracts to capitalize on what we perceive as a high probability situation. Clients are certainly free to adjust the number of contracts they trade to suit their individual situations. Obviously, smaller accounts will trade less and substantial accounts may hold larger positions. Futures Trading Equity is updated every week and marked to the market. Our VTM Short Term Model Portfolio has been highly profitable in the past and we expect it to continue to be profitable in the future. Commissions and slippage have been deducted from results and interest credit has not been added. The average margin to achieve the results below was 21%. The average drawdown was 23.7% with the greatest drawdown 50.5% in 2004. We changed our money management algorithm in 2004, and as a result, our average drawdown for 2005 and 2006 was 11.0%. The largest drawdown in 2007 was just 2.7% and only 8.07% in 2008.
The VTM Futures Timing Model issues two kinds of trades.
Very short term trades that last 1-21 days which are based on intra-day
and daily price data, and trades that average 7 months which are based
upon weekly price data. The first type of trades are for the Short
Term Portfolio, and the second type of trades are for the Weekly
Portfolio. The Weekly Portfolio is a long term 100% systematic
trend following method that capitalizes on long term major market moves.
It looks to hit home runs- not singles.
Most trading programs are so short term that commissions and slippage dissipate much of the profit because of the high turnover. For us, we trade so infrequently, that commissions and slippage are generally a non factor. Note that we margin only 10-20% of total account equity. This means that the return percentages listed below are 4-5X greater if we were to calculate return on margin. Gibbons' Trading VTM Short Term Futures Model Portfolio Return on Equity (updated 12/31/2008) 2001= +203.5% 2002= +46.8% 2003= +6.21% 2004= +45.7% 2005= +147.1% 2006= +352.9% 2007= +133.3% 2008= +13.8% Gibbons' Trading VTM Weekly Futures Model Portfolio Return on Equity 2007= +21.8% 2008= +51.5% I am Timer Digest’s 2008 Timer of the Year and I won this honor in 2002 and 2007 as well. Timer Digest monitors over a 100 of the world’s top market timing/trading models, and the very word “timer” implies that I am a market timer- I am kind of, but only in the sense that my short-term trend trades are correct a very high percentage of the time. I developed my short term VTM (Value Trading Method) Trading System on very short term measures of trend, that while discretionary, are based on systematic patterns. A trend is something that repeats, and if you examine the buy and sell signals, you can see that when I buy the S&P it generally moves higher and when I sell, it tends to move lower.Below are my trades submitted to Timer Digest for the S&P 500 cash (SPX) covering late 2007 and all of 2008 with the resultant profit and loss. As you can see, far from having losses, I achieved the best trading record in my history. These are real-time trading results.
Publication schedule Gibbons' Trading financial publications are sent to you every Sunday morning. In addition, unlike other financial information writers that have a fixed publication schedule, we publish whenever the markets tell us to act. In a very active market, you might receive updates several times a week. We provide a totally disciplined approach to trading with no emotion added. We are not fundamental traders that write reams of prose with "stories" that support our trades. You get high probability trades, and we make occasional specific market comments based upon the Value Trading Method. The VTM is a proprietary price based trend following and pattern recognition method of trading that uses a minimal number of parameters so as to not reduce statistical degrees of freedom. The accuracy and profitability of VTM trades continues to be consistent with little deviation from the mean. We have enhanced the money management aspect of our trading, and thus we expect continued gains with even less volatility of returns. Because of our track record, we have one of the most expensive trading information services in the world. This is logical as our clients are willing to pay for the edge provided on a consistent basis. Subscribers to our VTM publications include large traders, banks, forex dealers, hedge funds, brokers, futures funds, insurance companies, risk management firms, and many institutional money managers.
Subscription Information and Pricing Our trading publications are delivered to you via email. You generally receive them hours before any trades need to be made. You always get perfectly clear buy and sell recommendations with no equivocation of any kind. You never get trades that cannot be executed in the real world. Historically, we have had an extremely low rate of volatility of returns because of the nature of the Value Trading Method and the advanced money management algorithm that we employ. We provide very low risk trading-very low. Contrary to the idea that a high rate of return can only be achieved by taking extraordinary risk, we have produced large profits with minimal risk. Look at our long term track record- it speaks for itself. Subscribers receive buy and sell signals for the S&P 500 based upon the VTM Trading System. The S&P 500 Trading Signal Publication averages one (1) trading signal per year. VTM S&P 500 trading signals have outperformed the S&P 500 by 1623.80 index points since 12/4/1998 (updated 12/31/2008). Subscribers have a significant edge because we issue both longs and shorts. 1 year $5,000.00
Gibbons' Trading ETF Publication You receive our proprietary buy/sell signals in the S&P 500 ETF. Trades issued for the ETF Publication are 100% systematic and based upon price data from the underlying cash S&P 500 (SPX). We are always in the market either long or short. Weekly closing price data is used to generate trading signals. Since 1998, we have averaged 22.5% profit per year and all of our past 100% systematic trading signals during this time are fully disclosed to subscribers . We do not accept credit cards for one year subscriptions to our ETF Publication. Please click on the contact us button at the bottom of the page and tell us you want to subscribe. We will then provide you with our mailing address to send your check.1 year $30,000.00 Gibbons' Trading Futures Publication We offer two (2) Model Portfolios for futures trading. You receive our proprietary buy/sell signals in 33 futures markets that comprise our VTM Weekly Model Portfolio. Trades issued for the VTM Weekly Portfolio are 100% systematic. We are always in the market either long or short. Weekly data is used to generate the trading signals. Trades last an average of 7 months. You also receive trades for our VTM Short Term Model Portfolio that trades in 32 futures markets. At the present time, 95% of trades concentrated in stock index futures. Trading signals are 95% systematic and 5% discretionary. Trades last an average of 21 days. Generally, a maximum of 20% is margined in our Model Portfolios and the balance is held in cash. Trading stock index futures in the VTM Short Term Model Portfolio for the past nine years in real time trading has resulted in 73.9% winning trades with a net profit of $34,549,450.00. We do not accept credit cards for one year subscriptions to our Futures Trading Publication. Please click on the contact us button at the bottom of the page and tell us you want to subscribe. We will then provide you with our mailing address to send your check. 1 year $25,000.00Gibbons' Trading Very Short Term Futures Publication This Model Portfolio is for shorter term futures trades. Trades last an average of six days. You receive our proprietary very short term trades and these trading signals are 100% discretionary.Since it's inception in September 2007, this Model Portfolio has 89 completed trades with 74 winners and 15 losers for a winning percentage of 83.1%. This Model Portfolio has yielded $157,421.00 in closed trade profit on a one contract basis. We do not accept credit cards for this publication. Please click on the contact us button at the bottom of the page and tell us you want to subscribe. We will then provide you with our mailing address to send your check. 6 months $60,000.00 1 year $100,000.00 We do not accept credit cards for 6 or 12 month subscriptions to our Futures Trading Publication. For this publication, please click on the button below and tell us you want to subscribe. We will then provide you with our mailing address to send your check.
Private Research Please inquire as to pricing We provide our proprietary research to clients on an on-demand basis. The Value Trading Method (VTM) is capable of analyzing any freely traded market or stock in the world. If it is contained in our extensive data base, we can research it for you. This research is designed for mutual funds, large institutional traders, and hedge funds that require ongoing generic buy and sell trading signals. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission requires we display the following disclaimer and it applies to any futures trading statistics or other futures trading information found on this site: HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND SLIPPAGE. There is a risk of loss in trading stocks, currencies, bonds, futures or any other financial market. Please be certain that you thoroughly understand the risks involved in trading before you trade. Gibbons Trading LLC does not offer person to person individual advice nor will we comment on any specific issue related to trading. We do not tailor our trades to fit any specific person's portfolio. We do not manage customer funds. We are not commodity trading advisors or investment advisors. Gibbons Trading LLC is a stocks and futures electronic information publisher. We provide buy and sell signals for a wide variety of markets based on our research. Due to the nature of our trading, we can (and will) have periods of losses-sometimes long periods of losses. If you cannot afford to have trading losses from time to time, you should not trade. Note that Timer Digest receives our discretionary intermediate and long term market timing signals for bonds, gold, and the S&P 500. Timer Digest market timing signals will not necessarily be in alignment at any given time with the systematic VTM trading signals that we use for individual stock trades, futures index trades, SPX trades, and ETF trades that are in our various Model Portfolios. Note we do not offer refunds for any reason. Before you subscribe, make certain you are clear on the content of the publication you will be receiving. UNAUTHORIZED DISCLOSURE NOTICE CONFIDENTIALITY NOTE: The information contained in the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications is private, legally privileged and confidential information intended only for the use of registered subscribers. If the reader of either the Gibbons' Trading ETF or Futures publication is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that the reading, dissemination, distribution, forwarding or copying of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications is strictly prohibited and grounds for the immediate termination of the subscription, without the right of refund, of any registered Gibbons' Trading subscriber who participates in such distribution, dissemination, forwarding or copying. Gibbons' Trading reserves the right to monitor the use of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications, by whichever electronic means it deems appropriate. WARNING: Reproduction of any of the material contained in the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications, forwarding of same, or any portion thereof, by e-mail, fax, photocopying or any other means, substantial quotation of any portion of the Gibbons' Trading ETF and Futures publications, or any other use of same by any person other than the registered subscriber, without the written permission of Gibbons' Trading LLC, may violate copyright laws and subject the violator to legal prosecution. All rights reserved.
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